This conference is without a doubt one of the most backward conferences of the year. Heading into the season, Florida State and Miami were the heavy favorites heading into the year, ranked #11 and #12 respectively (if I remember correctly – I can’t find a list of previous AP polls). Virginia Tech and Boston College weren’t as heralded entering the season, but both teams had the attention of opposing teams. Georgia Tech was a one-man show with Calvin Johnson. The Miami-Florida State game exposed those two teams as squads that had little on offense and fairly good defenses. Either way, both teams were underachieving. Georgia Tech lost to Notre Dame, but barely.
Fast forward to now. Miami and Florida State are out of the Top 25. Clemson and Georgia Tech are in nearly the exact same places in the poll as Miami and Florida State were in the preseason (#12 and #13 for Clemson and Georgia Tech, respectively). Boston College is ranked as well – at 22nd in the nation – and the ACC is having one upside-down year. The Georgia Tech-Clemson game this weekend will determine #1 in the ACC.
The Atlantic Division is up for grabs. Five teams have just one in-conference loss (Florida State being 2-2), with Clemson leading the charge at a 3-1 in-conference record. Wake Forest, Boston College and North Carolina State are all nipping at the heels, all with a 2-1 record. Clemson owns a tiebreaker over Florida State and Wake Forest in the case of a tie, but if Boston College and Clemson end up with the same in-conference record, BC would get the nod due to the tiebreak in the double-overtime 34-33 thriller. Even Maryland could nab the Atlantic – though that doesn’t seem likely.
If Clemson wins against Georgia Tech, then Clemson has the inside track to Jacksonville. Wins against struggling Virginia Tech and against an underrated Maryland team would set up their place in the championship game, providing that NC State doesn’t do the unthinkable.
If Clemson loses, however, then it’s a race. The ACC Atlantic Division could end up like the SEC – each time has about two conference losses and everything ends up confused. Aside from this game against Georgia Tech, I believe the biggest game in Clemson’s schedule is going to be against Maryland.
The Coastal Division right now is in Georgia Tech’s hands. A 3-0 record, with only Miami anywhere close (a 1-1 record), allows the Yellow Jackets to control their own destiny. If Tech defeats the Tigers, then they may as well coast to Jacksonville. The only hurdle then would be Miami, coming into Tech’s house next week. Games at NC State and North Carolina, then home against Duke, would provide three consecutive wins. That, then, would solidify Georgia Tech’s place in the championship game.
Now, assuming that what should happen, will happen, Georgia Tech will (again) play Clemson in the ACC Championship. How? Even with two losses, if Clemson wins out, they will go to the championship providing that Boston College loses two of its last four conference matches. That’s perfectly possible – at Miami, at Florida State, at Wake Forest, and home against Maryland. A brutal end-of-year schedule.
Wake Forest would have to win out if Clemson loses in order to slide into the championship game. Because in the case of a Wake-Clemson tie, Clemson would hold the tiebreaker and thus would advance to the championship game.
Let’s assume, then, that what I think will happen does happen. That means, Miami and Florida State both would be left out of the championship game; Georgia Tech and Clemson would end up playing for the right to ascend to the BCS.
The way Georgia Tech has played, they’ve shown that they can win the close games and the shootouts. Of course, it isn’t hard to score when you have All-World Calvin Johnson lining up at wide receiver. If Georgia Tech can make it through Clemson and Miami, then they’re golden. Of course, Miami only beat Houston by one point and is in a downward spiral, so it looks as if Georgia Tech can and will beat the Hurricanes.
