Big 12 Mid-Season Breakdown

By Russell Denney
BringTheBlitz.com

10/20/06 at 2:47 PM

The Big 12 usually has one big game per year – the Red River Shootout between Texas and Oklahoma.  While that game is behind us, there are, this season, three more legitimate contenders for the Big 12 championship.

 

Missouri is off to its best start since 1960.  Yes, 1960.  It’s been that long.  At 6-1 (2-1), they are ranked #19 in the country and second in the Big 12 North, behind the Cornhuskers of Nebraska.  The Tigers don’t have to play Texas this year, which is a definite plus for them as far as the Big 12 North race is concerned.  However, they have to play Oklahoma and Nebraska in consecutive weeks.  And to make matters worse, the Tigers have to travel to Nebraska.  Playing in the Sea of Red isn’t easy.  That matchup may indeed be for the Big 12 North title.  Chase Daniel has been a huge factor in Missouri’s success, as has Tony Temple, who has rushed for 600 yards and three touchdowns.  The Tiger defense has only allowed an average of 13.7 points per game, while scoring 32 points per game.  That’s a convincing point margin, but numbers don’t show everything.  It’s critical that Missouri slow down the offense of Nebraska in order to win the North division title.  If that isn’t the case, though, then Missouri can end up anywhere between 9-3 and 11-1.

 

Nebraska, meanwhile, has a HUGE game against Texas this Saturday at home.  If they can pull the upset, then Nebraska will control its own destiny in the Big 12.  The win would solidify them as a favorite for the Big 12 North, and possibly for the entire Big 12.  However, they must play Missouri and Texas A&M in successive weeks before closing the season out against rival Colorado.  Missouri has shown it can win the important games – the Texas Tech win is a key example here.  Nebraska’s lone loss came at the hands of USC, so barring that, the Huskers would likely be a Top 10 team at the moment.  Don’t take the #17 ranking literally.  This Nebraska team is better than that.  The only thing is that they need to open up the offense.  Zac Taylor is a quality quarterback – he must show that against the Longhorns on Saturday.  Nebraska is doing even better than Missouri as far as point differential – 37 points per game on offense, and 13.4 allowed.  They’ll have to hold Colt McCoy and Limas Sweed and Jamaal Charles to 14 points or less, because Texas is allowing about as many points.  Nebraska, however, is a lock for a good bowl game.  They could end up anywhere between 8-4 and 11-1.

 

Texas A&M has quietly made its way into the Big 12 picture, going 6-1 through seven games, losing only to Texas Tech in a squeaker – 31-27.  This team is confusing, however.  They beat Army by only four, lose to Texas Tech by four, beat Kansas by just a field goal, but beat then-undefeated Missouri by six.  Texas A&M’s ranking may be inflated by the competition it has faced, but soon enough we will know just how good this Aggie squad is.  The Aggies go to Oklahoma State and Baylor before returning home to face Oklahoma and Nebraska (currently ranked #20 and #17, respectively).  Then, the Lone Star Showdown against rival Texas is their last game after a bye week.  That extra week may be what Texas A&M needs to get that signature win against its biggest rival.  Regardless, they must make it through Oklahoma and Nebraska to even have a chance of nabbing the Big 12 South title from Texas, who has had a stranglehold on it for a few years now.  In any case, Texas A&M could very well end up with – at worst – an 8-4 record at season’s end, and – at best – an 11-1 record and a trip to the Big 12 championship game.  Either way, it’s a successful season for the Aggies.

 

Texas, of course, remains the favorite to capture the conference crown (hey, alliteration!).  Colt McCoy has quickly matured into a quality quarterback for the Longhorns.  The Colt McCoy that played against Oklahoma was much different than the Colt McCoy that played against Ohio State.  I would liken Texas’ situation this year to Ohio State’s last year.  Quarterback controversy at the beginning of the year doomed Ohio State against Texas – this year, a new quarterback for the Longhorns doomed them.  And, again, I would love to see a Texas-Ohio State rematch.  Texas’ defense has been stellar, but it’s been buoyed by the fact that they’ve played teams like North Texas, Rice, and Sam Houston State.  They gave up 31 points to Baylor but only 10 to Oklahoma?  The defense will have to buckle down to beat the Huskers on Saturday.  If they do beat the Cornhuskers, then the only thing standing in their way will be Texas A&M.  In that case, the Lone Star Showdown could be the Big 12 South Showdown, with the winner going to the championship game (providing that A&M goes undefeated until then, as well).

 

In any case, at this rate, I would expect to see a matchup of Texas against either Missouri or Nebraska (the winner of their game will go to the championship, in my opinion).  A return to the championship game for Missouri would be a huge lift to that program.

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