This is the surprise conference of the year.  Three undefeated teams, and Pittsburgh has just one loss.  Rutgers is the surprise team of the year thus far, and at this point, has no intentions of losing.  The Louisville-West Virginia race will be close, but now Rutgers has become that third team that can win this conference.

I have doubts about Pittsburgh.  Yes, they are 6-1.  Yes, they have an experienced quarterback and a quick halfback.  Yes, they are 2-0 in the Big East.  But who have they played?  They’ve played Virginia, who is 2-5.  They’ve played Cincinnati and The Citadel.  They’ve played Toledo.  They played Central Florida.  They played Syracuse and only won by ten.  They have yet to play a true opponent.  We’ll see if these Panthers are for real when they play Rutgers on Saturday.  If they beat Rutgers, we can consider them a legitimate Big East contender.  But they close out the season with West Virginia and Louisville at home.  It will be very apparent by the end of the Rutgers game just how much of a contender these Pittsburgh Panthers are.

Louisville is for real.  They began the season with two Heisman contenders in Brian Brohm and Michael Bush.  They lost Michael Bush early in the season and thus went to a running back committee of two or three underclassmen.  It’s paid off with huge dividends thus far.  Brian Brohm went out with a hand injury, and the freshman Hunter Cantwell came in and filled in nicely for the junior.  Now that he’s back, Brian Brohm is looking to take this team to the BCS.  They can do it, too.  The manhandling of Miami at home was a huge lift for this team and a legitimizing victory to the coaches and pollsters.  After their game against Syracuse and a bye week, they play West Virginia and Rutgers in consecutive weeks.  That will determine Louisville’s chances for the BCS.  If they lose to only one of the two teams, it’s likely that they could still sneak into the BCS as an at-large team, especially if the third team is undefeated (say for instance West Virginia beats both Louisville and Rutgers, and Louisville beats Rutgers while WVU is undefeated).  A loss to an undefeated and a two-loss, Top 20 team will appeal strongly to the BCS voters.

Essentially, the same thing applies to both Rutgers and West Virginia.  If one survives undefeated, the other is a one-loss team and the other gets two losses, then two Big East teams could very well go into the BCS.

West Virginia is electric.  Pat White and Steve Slaton make up the most dangerous option-running quarterback-running back tandem in the nation in my opinion.  Some say West Virginia is a one-dimensional team, but I disagree.  We just haven’t seen White throw the ball much because they haven’t needed to throw the ball much.  My guess is if the Mountaineers ever get into a hole, Pat White will be able to show just how well he can throw.  He’s a quarterback for a reason – there will come a time when he will show that for sure.  White and Slaton could even garner some Heisman consideration.  Both of them average more than seven yards per carry – Slaton averages 7.1 yards and White averages 8.9 yards.  That means that for every time those two guys run the ball, 16 yards are gained.  The rest of the Mountaineers’ schedule alternates between difficult and easy – they have games against Pittsburgh, Louisville and Rutgers intermixed with games against Cincinnati and South Florida.

Rutgers has been the surprise of the year thus far.  Undefeated after such a dry spell is really a comeback story.  Greg Schiano has really done an amazing job with this program, turning them into a program worthy of being in the top 25 regardless of if they lose to Louisville, West Virginia, or Pitt.  Ray Rice is fourth in the nation for rushing, averaging 149.8 yards per game.  He is one yard short of 900 yards and should quickly reach 1000 yards.  Mike Teel is a capable quarterback, but Rutgers bases its offense on the ground game.  The offense is weak, averaging only 332.5 yards per game, but Rutgers’ defense has been simply amazing.  The Scarlet Knights have only allowed 8.3 points per game, and since they average 31.7 points per game, they look to be in good shape as long as the defense continues playing as it does.  Louisville and West Virginia have insane offenses, so Rutgers’ games against the two powerhouses will be very challenging for this defense.

Now it’s time for my completely unfounded but somewhat educated prognostication!

I think Pittsburgh fades down the stretch.  That 6-1 record has come against hardly any legitimate teams.  They lose to Rutgers’ powerful defense and rushing attack.  Rutgers, after putting up a valiant fight, loses to Louisville at home in a close game.  Louisville and West Virginia will make for an interesting game, considering that Louisville’s defensive strategy is to blitz, blitz, and blitz some more.  That could create problems for West Virginia.  I think Louisville makes it through the gauntlet and finishes the season unblemished.  West Virginia, after losing to Louisville, recovers enough to take down Rutgers.  So in the end, Louisville ends up undefeated, West Virginia is a one-loss BCS at-large team, and Rutgers finishes with two losses.  They will easily be in the top 20, but won’t make the BCS.  It’ll be a banner year for the Scarlet Knights, however, and will propel them to further success under Greg Schiano.