This conference has been dominated in recent years by USC. This year’s edition of the USC Trojans, however, has shown some vulnerability that may or may not be exploited by its opposition. This season, Cal and Oregon both have the most feasible chances of knocking off the modern juggernaut that is USC, but it won’t be easy. UCLA is out of the race as far as the Pac-10 title is concerned, having already lost to Oregon and still having Cal and USC on the schedule. There’s a reason I’m only breaking down conference contenders, you know… I’m too lazy to do all the teams and it’d take forever.
Southern Cal seems to just be rolling along right now. They survived scares from both Washington State, Washington and Arizona State, but in the process have shown that they can win the close games if need be. But while doing that, they too have shown flaws. Those flaws are apparent to opposing coaches and not to me, so I can’t say what those flaws are, but my observation is that this year’s offense doesn’t have near the firepower of the squad that had Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush and LenDale White. The schedule for the Trojans is mixed between difficult and mediocre. This weekend is Oregon State; next weekend is Stanford. Then, in successive weeks at home, USC has Oregon, Cal and Notre Dame. Let me repeat. Those three games are at home. USC really got the large end of the stick as far as scheduling home/away goes. If they can make it through Cal, USC is essentially a lock for the Pac-10 championship. As much as I don’t like to say it, USC could go undefeated again. The offense is led by heralded John David Booty, but the running back corps is lacking somewhat. The top two rushers have 423 and 400 yards and combine for five touchdowns, one more than receivers Dwayne Jarrett and Steve Smith have separately (each have four). This USC bunch isn’t as volatile on offense, but they’re still getting the job done.
Cal has had one major slip-up this year. That was the debacle against Tennessee in which the Golden Bears lost 35-18. Since then, Cal has beaten Arizona State and Oregon in convincing fashion. In games where Cal has scored more than 20 points, they are undefeated. They have scored 40+ points in five of their six wins as well. It’s possible that Cal’s offense is more capable and more powerful than USC’s.
… Yes, I said it. Cal’s offense is quite possibly more capable and more powerful than USC’s offense.
This Cal team could be the one to topple USC at home. It will be an amazing game, but the fact of the matter is that Cal is allowing just over 18 points per game while scoring nearly 37. USC is allowing 15 points per game and scoring 30. This scoring average for USC is skewed by the fact that they put up 50 on Arkansas. Without that 50, USC has averaged 26 points. If this game ends up being offense-based, then Cal is a favorite to take down the Trojans. Nathan Longshore and Marshawn Lynch have been the offensive one-two punch for the Bears. Longshore has nearly 1600 yards and 17 touchdowns, with Lynch contributing 757 yards and 6 touchdowns on the ground. Three receivers have 25+ receptions, and DeSean Jackson leads the group with 33 catches for 582 yards and 8 touchdowns. The defense is better than average and more adept at stopping another team’s offense. They held high-powered Oregon to 24 points but now that I think about it, USC’s offense is better than Oregon’s. Against then-ranked teams, Cal has given up 35, 21 and 24 points for an average of about 27 points. USC is better than Tennessee, Arizona State and Oregon, so this Cal-USC game will be a true test for each team.
I still stand by my word. Cal may be the team to upset USC this year.
Not to say that Oregon can’t. Oregon has a very Vince Young-esque quarterback in Dennis Dixon. He has the delivery and the size… minus about 35 pounds. Jonathan Stewart and Jeremiah Johnson handle the bulk of the carries, amassing 911 yards together and 10 touchdowns (5 apiece). Dennis Dixon, so far, has 1667 all-purpose yards (1439 passing, 228 rushing) and 12 touchdowns (2 rushing, 10 passing). The offense averages about 36 points per game but has been hit-or-miss on defense. They’ve given up anywhere from 10 to 45 points, with only two of those games having less than 20 points scored. In the two games against ranked teams, the Ducks gave up 33 and 45 points. I wouldn’t be surprised if USC dropped close to 45 on Oregon. It is still possible for Oregon to knock off USC, providing that the Ducks force enough turnovers to keep USC’s offense off the field for extended periods of time. Again, it’s possible, but not probable.
At this point, the Pac-10 title will be decided when Cal comes to the Coliseum and plays USC. But if the unthinkable happens, and Cal loses but Oregon wins, it’ll be a three-way tie for the Pac-10 title. USC will have beaten Cal, who will have beaten Oregon, who will have beaten USC. I have no idea how they break a three-way tie. Better overall record? Most points scored? Highest ranking? Who knows. All I know is that the title should be decided on November 18th.
