This conference is, as always, the most difficult conference to predict.  The teams are so good that the odds that a team will escape unscathed in conference play is nearly zero.  Just ask Florida and the Auburn team of 2004 (though that year’s team did make it out unscathed, only to be snookered by the BCS).  It’s amazingly difficult to work out exactly how the games will fall because everyone is so evenly matched, but I’m going to give it my best shot and hope I don’t screw everything up.

The West Division is still up in the air.  Arkansas is undefeated in conference play, having knocked off then-#2 Auburn in a shocker.  That game wasn’t even close.  It was a 27-10 beatdown and the Razorbacks are on a hot streak after the season-opening blowout loss to USC.  Since that loss, the Razorbacks have not given up more than 23 points in a game and have averaged 23 points per game on offense (not counting the 63-point showing against SE Missouri State and the 14-point performance against USC).  The fact of the matter is, Mitch Mustain is for real.  Darren McFadden and Felix Jones shoulder the brunt of the offense, though, combining for 1094 yards and 8 touchdowns.  Mustain has 625 passing yards and 7 touchdowns, but the offense is centered around the rushing attack until Mustain becomes more experienced.  Arkansas receives a scheduling benefit (of sorts), “only” playing Tennessee and LSU to close out the season.  Both these important games are at home, which gives Arkansas a marked advantage.  Still, the game against Tennessee will ultimately decide if the upset of Auburn was a fluke or a legitimate win.  If Arkansas manages to lose to only Tennessee or LSU, then Arkansas will make it to the SEC Championship in Atlanta.

Auburn is out of the West Division race if Arkansas loses less than two of its last games.  If Arkansas even loses once, Auburn will be left out due to the tiebreaker that Arkansas holds over the Tigers.  However, if Arkansas does lose two, Auburn will make it to the championship game.  The rest of Auburn’s schedule is fairly easy, save for games against Georgia and Alabama to close out the year.  Remember, in the Iron Bowl, no team is out of it.  It’s just like Michigan-Ohio State.  No matter the rankings, the game is close.  Alabama looks to be more of a challenge than Georgia at this point, what with the quarterback controversy.  Auburn’s defense is amazing, but the offensive production leaves a bit to be desired.  They average a mediocre 329 yards per game but produce nearly 26 points per game.  The defense is partly responsible for this – the field position that the team gets due to the defense is impeccable.  It’s a win-lose situation – fewer yards but more opportunities to score.  Regardless, Auburn needs to recover from this loss to Arkansas and they’ve already begun that process by offing Florida in stunning fashion.  They can still make the SEC Championship, but they would need Arkansas to lose two more conference matchups.

That is, in a nutshell, the race for the West.  Providing that Alabama doesn’t beat Auburn, it’s a two-team race.  If Alabama upsets Auburn while going undefeated the rest of the way, and Arkansas drops two more games, then there will be a three-way tie at the top of the division.  But that’s not probable.  LSU is out of the race.

The East Division is basically a two-team race as well.  Florida and Tennessee are the only one-loss teams in the division.  Georgia and South Carolina both have two losses, but Georgia is all but out of the race after having lost to Vanderbilt this past weekend.  The quarterback controversy has thrown this team out of sync, and in essence has doomed itself against ranked teams aside from Georgia Tech, which is another rivalry game that should be key in the BCS race.  South Carolina is improving, but the two losses is a big hole with four ranked teams to go in the season.  Hence, my guess is that the East Division title will go to either the Gators or the Volunteers.

Florida is done with the heaviest part of its in-conference schedule.  They have Georgia next Saturday for the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, but it at this point looks to be mainly a party for Gator fans.  The situation at Georgia has left the team’s future this year up in the air.  After suffering two straight losses, the Bulldogs are effectively falling out of the SEC race.  The Gators, on the other hand, are coming off a slap in the face at the hands of Auburn.  The Gators have a bye week to regroup for Georgia and should recover nicely.  After this, Florida and Urban Meyer will have to only truly worry about Florida State, and that’s not even an SEC game.  South Carolina may keep it close for a while, but Florida just is too high-powered.  Chris Leak is a quality quarterback, and Tim Tebow is the team’s second-leading rusher yards-wise, with 246 yards and a 5.6 yards-per-carry average.  This double-quarterback system has worked thus far, but such a system has never led to a national championship and doesn’t look to be the same this year either.  Florida would have to win out, hope that West Virginia, Louisville, USC, and Michigan/Ohio State lose.  That way, they could back into the championship game by winning the SEC and beating Florida State.  It’s not likely, though.

Tennessee has a schedule chock-full of rivalries left to go.  Alabama is Saturday night, in a game that is nearly always a close one.  Then they travel to South Carolina, which could give them problems considering that Steve Spurrier’s Gamecocks gave Auburn all they could handle.  Then LSU and Arkansas in consecutive weeks, followed by a trip to Vanderbilt and a season-ender at home against Kentucky.  The last two games should be gimmes, but these next four definitely are not automatic wins.  Even if the Volunteers go undefeated through the rest of the season, they would need Florida to lose an in-conference game in order to make the SEC Championship.  Florida’s 21-20 defeat of Tennessee would be the tiebreak in case both teams go with one loss in conference play.  Now, Tennessee is capable of going the distance, but the defense is giving up about 20 points per game.  Taking away the wins against Memphis and Georgia (since Memphis is Memphis and Georgia went to pot in the second half), the Vols have averaged about 27 points per game.  That’s only a seven-point differential on average.  It’ll be interesting to see how Tennessee fares down the stretch.  Erik Ainge has come into his own as Tennessee’s quarterback, and has proven to be a good field general, throwing for 1657 yards and 14 touchdowns.  It’s possible for Tennessee to make it to Atlanta… but it isn’t probable.

At this rate, I see Florida going to the championship at the Georgia Dome.  The West is still a toss-up, but in the end, I believe that Arkansas’ win against Auburn will not stand up.  Mustain is a freshman, he’ll make mistakes.  Arkansas loses a pair down the stretch and Auburn makes it to the championship for a rematch with the Gators.