Quarterbacks
1. Matt Schaub, HOU
a. After being praised, promoted, and all-but-whored by the media, Matt Schaub will finally get to start as a week one starting QB in the NFL as he takes over the job for the Houston Texans. Many said that although David Carr had a good amount of talent, his head was not in the games due to the horrible lack of success that the Texans had during his time in Houston. Schaub is a new beginning for this team, even though they really haven’t done much to improve the supporting cast – most notably the offensive line. Even with offensive weapons like Andre Johnson and Ahman Green, Schaub will need time to develop as a starter and probably should not be touched by most fantasy owners until he proves that he can produce anything worthwhile of putting in your starting lineup.
2. Steve McNair, BAL
a. Though McNair and the Ravens finished with one of the NFL’s best records; the team’s true fantasy value didn’t come from the offensive side of the ball. The acquisition of Steve McNair in the off-season was surely an upgrade over Kyle Boller, but McNair’s 3,050 yards and 16 touchdown passes actually put him below players like J.P. Losman, Rex Grossman, and Chad Pennington. McNair is a solid game manager, but he really isn’t the kind of guy who is going to take a game over and throw for 400 yards and 4 touchdowns anymore.
3. Trent Green, MIA
a. Trent Green is coming off of a year in which he missed 8 of the first 9 games of the season due to an awful concussion suffered early in the year. Green was shipped to Miami this off-season and will be given the chance to show that he is still the guy who threw for 4,000+ yards in 2003, 2004, and 2005. The problem is that he’s stepping into a situation where a revolving door of quarterbacks has been unsuccessful for nearly a decade. Green will have very good receiving core that includes Chris Chambers, Marty Booker, and rookie speedster Ted Ginn Jr., but the concern is that his game is not what it used to be. Following his concussion, Green played in 7 games for the Chiefs, but was only able to throw for over 200 yards or 2+ touchdowns on one occasion. The receivers are significantly better in Miami than they were in Kansas City, but Green will be entering his 14th NFL season in 2007 and the porous Dolphins offensive line might not be able to protect him as much as he needs.
4. J.P. Losman, BUF
a. On the surface, it appears that 4th year quarterback J.P. Losman should be poised to have a breakout season in 2006. In late-2006, Losman showed some promise as he threw 12 of his 19 touchdown passes in the last 7 games of the season. The problem with Losman is not with his ability as much as it is with his decision making. When he sees blitzes, he gets flustered; and he will probably see more of them in 2007 than he did in 2006; as Willis McGahee left in the off-season, which will allow opposing defenses to focus more on stopping Losman and WR Lee Evans. If Losman struggles and the Bills are out of playoff contention, which they most likely will be, it wouldn’t be out of the question to see Bills management make a move to put rookie quarterback Trent Edwards behind center. Losman does have pressure on his shoulders to perform and he will need to do so to keep his starting job.
5. Chad Pennington, NYJ
a. When Chad Pennington came into the league, he was praised for being one of the league’s most efficient passers. Despite him not having the “big arm” for deep passes, Pennington made opposing defenses cringe as he picked them apart underneath and threw for 22 touchdowns with only 6 interceptions in 2002. Pennington’s career has been plagued with injuries and 2006 was the first time that Pennington has ever started all 16 games in an NFL season. Pennington did throw for a career-high 3,352 touchdowns, but only threw 17 touchdown passes as opposed to 16 interceptions. With the Jets adding Thomas Jones to the backfield, Pennington should be able to go over the top a bit more often; but may see fewer opportunities to throw in the red zone.
Running Backs
1. LaMont Jordan, OAK
a. It was only a season ago that many people had LaMont Jordan as one of the top picks in the entire draft. In fact, I saw him go as high as 4th overall in a draft. Thankfully, the truth finally came out and Jordan was not only exposed as a mediocre running back, but the Raiders’ offensive line was exposed for being a complete train-wreck. Jordan is coming off of a season in which he tore his MCL, he ran for only 434 yards and 2 TD’s in 10 games, and his receiving was not nearly what it was in 2005. Free agent acquisition Dominic Rhodes and rookie Michael Bush both look poised to take carries from Jordan; especially in the red-zone, and Jordan really should not be looked at as anything higher than a 3rd or 4th back.
2. Brandon Jacobs, NYG
a. With Tiki Barber gone into retirement, the Giants turn to Brandon Jacobs to take a bulk of the carries in 2007. While Jacobs is a true goal-line back, he will see many carries given to Rueben Droughns and may not be the type of fantasy contributor that a lot of people think he will be. Combine his split carries with Droughns, the fact that he isn’t a very good receiver, and the fact that the Giants offensive line is suspect at best; and the prospect of Brandon Jacobs having a breakout season isn’t very good. Don’t look at Jacobs as anything other than a low-level 3rd back.
3. Thomas Jones, NYJ
a. The Jets’ biggest off-season acquisition this season was running back Thomas Jones from the NFC champion Chicago Bears. Jones rushed for over 1,200 yards for the Bears in 2006, but was only able to hit the end zone 6 times during the regular season. Though the Jets finally have found themselves a feature back, their offensive line is still very young, their wide receivers are extremely inconsistent, and the success of head coach Eric Mangini may have been more of a mirage than a trend.
4. Marshawn Lynch, BUF
a. Don’t take this the wrong way because I believe Marshawn Lynch has the talent to be a big-time NFL running back, but the Buffalo Bills just aren’t a place where a rookie running back is going to step in and be a top rusher. Lynch has a history of back and ankle problems that held him back in the second have of his 2006 college season at Cal and the Bills offensive line has played awfully bad over the past few seasons, allowing a very talented Willis McGahee to score just 6 touchdowns all season and hit 100+ yards only twice in 2006. Lynch is a back that I would definitely look at higher in keeper leagues than a standard league due to his potential upside, but he should only be drafted as a late 2nd RB or an early 3rd.
5. Carnell Williams, TB
a. Few players had a worse season than “Cadillac” Williams in 2006. Despite playing 14 games, Williams rushed for under 800 yards and scored only one touchdown all season. Williams was held under 50 yards rushing in 9 of his 14 games and didn’t add much more catching passes. Williams has the potential to be a very good running back, and the Buccaneers expect him to be; but the offensive line in front of him is too lazy, injury-plagued, and just downright poor for him to do so. Add in the fact that full back Mike Alstott has been placed on the injured reserve list for the ’07 season (and will likely retire), and Carnell Williams just doesn’t look like a very safe pick at all. Stay away from Williams if you can, but certainly don’t make him anything other than a late 3rd or even 4th back.
6. DeShaun Foster, CAR
a. Foster is one of those guys whom everyone seems to be in agreement with that he has the talent to be a solid NFL running back. Instead, now entering his 5th NFL season, Foster has done little to prove that he is anything more than a career backup. Foster played 14 games for the Panthers in 2006, but failed to hit 900 yards rushing on the season; combined with only 3 total touchdowns. To say he was a fantasy flop would be an understatement. Foster’s extensive injury history is a giant warning sign for those who see it and 2nd year running back DeAngelo Williams is ready to step in and start pulling carries away from Foster if he doesn’t start to perform up to par. Foster will see enough touches to warrant being a low-level No. 3 running back, but should not be taken any higher than the mid-late rounds.
7. Tatum Bell, DET
a. Tatum Bell sent the 2006 season splitting carries with Mike Bell in Denver. The Broncos have had a long history of producing 1,000+ yard running backs and Bell was the benefactor of that in 2006 as took most of the team’s carries; despite not being listed as the starter on the roster. Unfortunately for Bell’s fantasy owners, the 1,025 rushing yards were only combined with 115 yards receiving and a total of two touchdowns. The off-season saw Denver trade Bell to Detroit where Bell will be listed as No. 2 on the depth chart behind current starter Kevin Jones. Jones was on pace for a quality fantasy season in 2006 before he went down to injury, but has promised that he will return to form in 2007. Bell’s true value will be if Jones does go down to injury again; but even if he does, TJ Duckett is also on the roster and he would likely get a bulk of the goal-line carries. Stay away from Bell in your draft unless it is found out that Kevin Jones will be missing an extended period of regular season playing time.
8. Michael Turner, SD
a. Michael Turner is the kind of player who will likely be given the tag of “handcuff” for our favorite fantasy back, LaDainian Tomlinson. There was much discussion in San Diego about moving Turner this off-season, but it turns out that that Turner will be staying put in San Diego; at least for now. The obvious point to make here is that LaDainian Tomlinson is the best fantasy player in the entire NFL, possibly in the history of football, and Turner’s value is very much dependant on Tomlinson getting injured. Unless you already have Tomlinson on your roster or are looking for another body to fill out your roster at the end of the draft, stay away from Michael Turner. Despite his potential, it is nearly impossible to tell if and when he will see carries unless Tomlinson goes down; and it is useless to have him on your team if you can’t play him.
Wide Receivers
1. Marques Colston, NO
a. The biggest surprise of the 2006 season was 7th-round draft pick Marques Colston. Colston surprised fantasy owners by scoring two touchdowns over the first two weeks of the season and quickly became Drew Brees’ favorite target in the NFL’s #1 offense. Colston used his 6’4”, 231 lb. frame to overpower smaller cornerbacks on his way to 1,038 yards and 8 touchdown receptions, despite missing two games due to injury. A lot of fantasy owners are putting a lot of stock into Colston’s name because of his success in 2006, but fantasy owners should also look into the fact that Colston scored just one touchdown in his final 6 games after scoring 7 in his first 8 games. Some of this definitely had to do with Colston being injured, but it also had to do with defenses starting to key in on Colston as a red-zone target. Don’t look away from Colston in your fantasy draft, but be weary of him as your No. 1 receiver – we would recommend him as a very strong No. 2 receiver this year, but he could very easily have a second NFL season similar to Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Michael Clayton (and not just because their initials are the same).
2. Terry Glenn, DAL
a. The former Ohio State Buckeye, Terry Glenn enters his 12th NFL season this year at the ripe age of 33. Glenn posted 70 receptions for 1,047 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2006 while playing opposite the incomparable Terrell Owens. Glenn’s problem as a fantasy receiver doesn’t come from his overall production, but rather with his complete inconsistency. You never know if Glenn is going to come out and score two touchdowns, or if he’s going to catch one pass for 12 yards. It’s hard to justify starting a player who scored 6 touchdowns all year, but scored them all in four isolated games. If Glenn could somehow start scoring a bit more often or mix in a few more 100-yard games when he doesn’t score, it would be reasonable to start him as a No. 2 WR; but he hasn’t proven that he can do that under any of Dallas’ quarterbacks. About the only thing that’s consistent about Glenn has been his ability to score against the Redskins - over the past 8 times he has played against the ‘Skins, Glenn has scored 6 touchdowns. Glenn can be a solid No. 3 WR or a good No. 4 WR, but don’t draft him as your No. 2 WR.
3. Joey Galloway, TB
a. Joey Galloway’s stats took a bit of a dip in 2006 given the quarterback carousel in Tampa Bay. Not only did he catch 21 less passes, he also scored 3 less touchdowns, and had 230 yards less in ’07 than he did in ’06. Though his final season totals weren’t awful, much like Terry Glenn, Joey Galloway was extremely inconsistent in 2006. It was almost impossible to play “the match-ups” with him as he put up 100+ yards and/or a touchdown against defenses like Atlanta, Carolina and Chicago; but failed to do either against Cincinnati, New York (Giants), Cleveland, and Dallas. In addition, Galloway failed to catch a single pass in home games against Philadelphia and Baltimore. If, by chance, you left Galloway in your lineup for the entire season; you probably got decent production out of him – but more than likely, if you had Galloway on your roster, you were sitting him while he scored and playing him while he did little or nothing. Though Galloway still has gas in the tank and could finish 2007 with his third consecutive 1,000+ yard season, his style of play and the crazy quarterback situation make Joey Galloway a potential bust this year.
4. Mike Furrey, DET
a. Perhaps the most un-predictable breakout at wide receiver in 2006 was Detroit’s Mike Furrey. Furrey, a four-year veteran, had caught only 21 receptions in his career prior to 2006, including a season without a single reception in 2005. Furrey’s 1086 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns were capped off by an impressive month of December where he had 100 yards AND 1 TD in three games against very good pass defenses in New England, Chicago, and Dallas. Though Detroit’s offense has improved this off-season, Mike Furrey has all-but-officially been demoted to the team’s No. 2 WR behind rookie prodigy Calvin Johnson. Detroit has announced publicly that they will run three and four WR sets, but the consensus seems to be that Furrey’s fantasy value will drop-off in 2007. Don’t expect Furrey to have another 1,000 yard season this year.
5. Rod Smith, DEN
a. In just about every fantasy league, it seems someone decides to make a mid-to-late selection of Rod Smith as a “quality” backup WR. Smith has been a pretty solid yardage receiver throughout his career at Denver, but he has had double-digit touchdowns only twice in his 12-year NFL career. The problem with veteran receivers like Rod Smith is that they are nearing their last leg in this league and their coaches, and more importantly their quarterbacks, know it. Smith played all 16 games in 2006 for the Broncos, but caught only 3 touchdown passes and had only 512 yards receiving – hardly the kind of production you’d like to have from a fantasy wide receiver. Smith is no longer the No. 1 target in Denver with the acquisition of Javon Walker, and the Broncos have always been a run-first offense to begin with. Rather than select Rod Smith or another end-of-his-career receiver, I would recommend taking a gamble on a young WR who may be ready to break out of his shell.
6. Craig Davis, SD
a. Despite Craig Davis being a first-round selection for the Chargers, he is still the 3rd target – at best – on a run-first offense. LaDainian Tomlinson has been and will continue to be the Chargers’ red-zone juggernaut and that won’t change unless he is injured. If Tomlinson isn’t scoring, the next probable target would be tight end Antonio Gates who caught 9 touchdown passes in 2006. Phillip Rivers also seemed to get into a groove near the end of ’06 with 2nd-year WR Vincent Jackson. Craig Davis has the potential to be a very good NFL wide receiver, but let’s wait to see him prove the he IS that before we waste a draft pick on him.
7. Anthony Gonzalez, IND
a. Another first-round rookie that is the No. 3 target – at best – on his team. Though the Colts like to use a lot of 3-WR sets, the absence of Brandon Stokley for most of 2006 led the Colts to make use of TE’s Dallas Clark and Ben Utecht along with RB’s Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes. Using this scheme, the Colts were still averaging an impressive 270 yards passing per game – good enough for 2nd in the NFL – and obviously good enough to win a Superbowl ring… The Colts’ offense is not expected to make a lot of changes in ’07 from what they did in ’06 and that could mean less playing time than expected for Anthony Gonzalez. Gonzalez could emerge as a solid No. 3 in Indianapolis this year, but his fantasy value will probably be minimal given the success Harrison and Wayne have had over the past few seasons. Gonzalez is being brought in for the future – not for the present – and picking him as anything higher than deep backup on your fantasy team is probably a mistake.
Tight Ends
1. Heath Miller, PIT
a. Heath Miller is the kind of guy who sounds like a “solid” tight end, but in reality; his value in the Steelers’ offense is mostly as a blocker. Miller started off the 2006 season with a 101-yard, 1 TD game against the Dolphins, but failed to hit even 40 yards receiving in any game for the rest of the season, including two in-division games where he didn’t catch a single pass. Miller is not a quality fantasy tight end and you shouldn’t reach at all for him. Just because the Gonzalez’s, Shockey’s, Crumpler’s, and Gates’ of the world are gone, doesn’t mean you “have to” get a tight end. In fact, if that happens, you should probably just wait to grab a tight end until very late in the draft. I’m not necessarily saying that Miller won’t duplicate his ’06 production, but if you draft him too high; you will be kicking yourself. Unless you have one of the top few tight ends, you’re not going to get consistent production out of this position, and you shouldn’t draft them high. Fill up on running backs and receivers before you reach.
2. Eric Johnson, NO
a. Eric Johnson came out of no where in 2004 with an 82-reception, 825-yard season for the 49ers and looked like he might be emerging as the next emerging NFL tight end. Johnson then missed the entire 2005 season following an off-season injury. When Johnson returned to the team in 2006, his job had been taken by rookie tight end Vernon Davis. Johnson got a break when Davis went down with an injury, but he was only able to catch 34 passes for 292 yards and 2 TD’s. With Davis returning, Johnson has moved on to New Orleans – the NFL’s leading passing team in 2006 – with the intention of returning to his 2004 glory. Though he seems like a prime candidate to be a stand-out tight end on this pass-happy offense; the truth is that Eric Johnson is a severe injury concern and the Saints don’t run as many formations with tight ends as many other teams do. Johnson should not be drafted in most fantasy leagues and should rather be used as a bye-week fill-in at best.
