Still considered an elite fantasy running back by most owners, Shaun Alexander could be in for a tough season.

Once considered the top player at his position and just two years removed from a record-breaking season, Shaun Alexander is now coming off of a season littered with injuries and offensive line problems… But the problems weren’t just injuries and the offensive line – even when he was healthy, Alexander seemed to be running with less determination and fluidity. The question coming into 2007 about Alexander is simple – can he still run?

Alexander missed 6 games following a foot injury suffered early in the season. When he returned, we expected him to continue his dominance by trampling over his division rival – a team he normally destroys – the San Francisco 49ers… But that didn’t happen. On 17 carries, Alexander ran for only 37 yards and 0 touchdowns. The following week, however, Alexander returned to form by running all over the Green Bay defense on his way to a season-high 201 rushing yards. Alexander had a productive December, rushing for 5 touchdowns in 5 games and 471 yards, but only his 140-yard, 2 TD day against San Diego could be considered ‘elite’ fantasy performance.

Though we expect that Alexander will be recovered from his injuries by the time the season starts this year, there are still other deterring factors regarding his fantasy value… Primarily, the offensive line situation in Seattle. Even though Alexander’s stats were deflated because of his injury, he was still only able to run for 3.6 yards per carry (down from 5.1 yards per carry in 2005) when he was healthy. Add that to his 10-game, 7 touchdown total and you don’t have a very consistent fantasy player on your hands – certainly not one that you want to anchor your team around. Even more disturbingly, Alexander fumbled the ball a career-high 6 times in the 10 games that he played. Alexander clearly benefited early in his career running behind Steve Hutchinson and without the outstanding left guard, Alexander doesn’t have a go-to spot on the interior part of his offensive line.

Perhaps the worst thing about Alexander is his absolute ineptitude in the passing game. In his past three seasons, Alexander has a total of only 50 receptions and a measly 296 yards receiving. In a points-per-reception league, Alexander’s fantasy value takes a drastic hit.

Among the running backs who are expected to be selected in the top-12 of their position, only Alexander, Rudi Johnson, and Willis McGahee are expected to have less than 40 catches this season. Backs such as LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, Larry Johnson, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook, and even Reggie Bush could all have a huge leg-up on Alexander just because of their ability to nickel-and-dime defenses with short passes that are each worth points.

Alexander is a risky pick in the top-5, and could even be risky in the first round at all… But his average draft position is lingering around 5^th-6^th. LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, Larry Johnson, and Frank Gore should all be selected above Alexander. Joseph Addai is another player that could arguably be taken above Alexander in a standard scoring system. If your league does not award points-per-reception, Alexander should be a good pick if all the above players have been taken. If your league does award points-per-reception, Alexander could be dropped down below players such as Brian Westbrook and even possibly Reggie Bush.

Alexander is one of the most consistent fantasy running backs we’ve ever seen, but he is going to be 30 years old on opening day and the effects of lingering injuries and offensive line merry-go-rounds could mean that Shaun Alexander may be on the down-side of his career.

Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis Colts

Don't be the guy who takes Peyton Manning with the 4th overall pick!

It seems like every year, someone is talking about taking Peyton Manning with their first-round pick. Manning has been statistically the best fantasy quarterback we have ever seen in this league, especially in 2004 when he threw for an NFL record 49 touchdown passes. He is consistent, he has incredible receivers, and he is arguably the most skilled player ever to play the position… But the underlying topic of this article is fantasy value. And just because he threw the most touchdown passes in 2006 does not mean he was worthy of a first-round fantasy selection.

A common misconception in many fantasy leagues is that you should just draft the player who will get you the most points… Though that makes a lot of sense at first glance, an expert will tell you that it is not necessarily about having the highest scoring player so much as it is about picking the player who is going to score more points than other players AT HIS POSITION.

Most fantasy leagues have a pretty similar weekly lineup that includes – 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 D/ST. Peyton Manning is unquestionably the top player at his position, but his passing stats were not extraordinarily better than the other top quarterbacks… On a weekly basis, using a standard scoring system, Manning’s average weekly point production was only 29% better than the 10^th best QB; and 37% better than the 20^th best QB.

We’ll leave LaDainian Tomlinson out of this discussion because he had such a ridiculously huge season last year… But, in comparison, Larry Johnson – the No. 2 running back point-scorer; had an average weekly point production that was 38% higher than the 10^th best running back; and 51% better than the 20^th best running back.

As I said, the idea is to get a player who is going to score a bunch more than other players at his position. Though Peyton Manning has been the highest scoring quarterback, he has not been out-scoring the other quarterbacks as much as the top running backs have out-scored the rest of the running backs. There is a much bigger drop-off of production at the running back position than there is the quarterback position.

Even though Peyton Manning might out-score someone like Frank Gore in total points, his point total is not going to be significantly higher than another quarterback you could get in a later round… For example, Marc Bulger has been one of the most productive fantasy quarterbacks in the league over the past few seasons and his production is expected to at least continue and maybe even get better. He is likely going to slip to anywhere between rounds four to rounds five (unless people start taking QB’s way too early, which can happen, so pay attention). Rather than reach to get Peyton Manning with a top-5 pick, it would be wise to select a running back like Frank Gore; and hope to get another good running back on the way back.

Assuming a 12-team draft, your line-up could look like this after the first four rounds:

RB – Frank Gore

RB – Cedric Benson

WR – Reggie Wayne

QB – Marc Bulger

As opposed to:

QB – Peyton Manning

RB – Cedric Benson

WR – Reggie Wayne

RB – Carnell Williams

As we saw before with the point drop-offs, the running back drop-off is so large that waiting to select your No. 2 running back in rounds 3 or later could mean that you are struggling to put a solid lineup on the field every week because your RB depth is so thin and inconsistent. If you decided to select a running back in round three as opposed to round four; you are likely going to be picking someone like Thomas Jones, but you’d be left with a significantly more skeptical WR such as Andre Johnson or Plaxico Burress.

Productive quarterbacks are a dime a dozen in fantasy football. If you are in a league with 10-12 teams, keep in mind that each owner is generally only going to select one quarterback early in the draft. So even if you get stuck with the last of the top-12 quarterbacks, you’re still getting someone like Matt Leinart, Phillip Rivers, Jay Cutler, or Vince Young. These are all young quarterbacks with huge upside and are all the unquestioned starter on their team – you won’t have to worry about them being benched after week 6 if the team is somehow out of playoff contention.

By no means am I suggesting completely avoiding Peyton Manning in your fantasy draft. Manning is the top fantasy quarterback in the league and no one has even come close to eclipsing him for that spot. Just keep in mind your draft position – if you’re at pick 9-12 and you really want to get Manning, go for it. Just remember that, in the subsequent three rounds, you’re going to probably want to select the best available running backs before they are all gone.

Laurence Maroney, RB, New England Patriots

Laurence Maroney will get his chance to shine this year as the Patriots' starting running back -- but is being the solo RB going to be good for Maroney?

Considered by many to be one of the top candidate for NFL rookie of the year in ‘06, Patriots running back Laurence Maroney rushed for 745 yards and 6 touchdowns. He also added an additional 194 yards and touchdown receiving. With Corey Dillon now out of the picture, Maroney will be relied upon to be the team’s top running back.

Durability has always been one of Maroney’s major downfalls. It was his question mark at the University of Minnesota, it was his question mark going into the draft, and it will be his biggest question mark entering the 2007 season. Maroney, now entering his second season as a pro, has been favoring his shoulder in practices and has worn a red “non-contact” jersey throughout the entire off-season. He has still not played in the pre-season and may not get much action before the regular season begins.

Maroney, 8^th or 9^th pick in most drafts, will be under the pressure of his coaches to carry the majority of the workload this season. Because of this, many fantasy owners are looking at Maroney as a very high reward potential player. His speed and elusiveness make him a great fit for the Patriots’ zone blocking scheme and he seems excited to be “the guy” in New England.

When asked about becoming the starter, Maroney was quoted as saying, "We've got a lot of good players on this team and I still don't feel like with Corey being gone and me moving up to the starting running back that the pressure is going to be on me because we still have 10 other people on this (offense) that are going to have to carry their load. I'm going to have to carry my part and we're all going to come together and put it together as a team effort."

It’s not very often that a running back says that he’s happy about other players being able to take the workload. But Maroney is that kind of player. With players such as Kevin Faulk still on the roster, it is possible that Maroney will not be taking as many carries as some fantasy owners are expecting.

If he doesn’t take the significant majority of the carries, Maroney’s value drops because of a lack of touches… But if he does take the bulk of the carries, his value could also take a hit due to the amount of punishment his body will be taking every week and the history of nagging, minor injuries he has sustained throughout his football career.

Maroney is a risk, despite what some people want to believe. In college or the NFL, he has never taken on a full workload as a running back – he split carries at the University of Minnesota with Marion Barber and Gary Russell; and he split carries with Corey Dillon and Kevin Faulk on the Patriots in ’06. If he proves that he is able to stay healthy and productive throughout the season, Maroney could most certainly be worthwhile of a top-10 pick, but it is likely that the Patriots will be throwing the ball a significant amount more in ’07 than they did in ’06; especially in the red-zone. Maroney’s fantasy value could take a hit based on that alone.

If you do decide to take Laurence Maroney in your fantasy draft, don’t take him too early. Selecting him within picks 8-10 is a pretty good idea. But make sure that you also have a back-up plan. I would recommend selecting another running back immediately in round two. If he’s still available, Rudi Johnson would be a very nice compliment to Maroney given his extremely consistent fantasy production; but even Reggie Bush or Willis McGahee would be good second RB’s. Relying on Maroney to be your sole producer at running back could be a big mistake, so don’t be the guy who has Laurence Maroney and Jamal Lewis as his starters.