Yet another conference that seemingly failed expectations, the Big 12 was a bit down like their Big 10 and ACC counterparts. Is Colt McCoy ready to lead the Longhorns into the BCS title game? Will a contender emerge from the North? All that and more in the 2007 Big 12 preview on Bringtheblitz.com.
5 Burning Big 12 Questions:
1. How’s Oklahoma’s QB situation coming along?
The Answer: Sam Bradford is the starter.
Analysis: Bradford got the nod earlier last week, winning the job over Keith Nicol and Joey Halzle. If Bradford can settle down and be an efficient starter for the Sooners, they should find themselves in the BCS picture with ease. Like many other powerhouses out there with QB questions, all Bradford has to do is make a good throw or two, move the chains on 3rd and long, let Allen Patrick and DeMarco Murry do the grinding. If Bradford can accomplish this, it should be all good for OU.
2. Does Colorado play “DIVISION ONE FOOTBALL!”?
The Answer: You might not know it by the way they played last year.
Analysis: Dan Hawkins’ rant aside, as hilarious as it may be, the Buffaloes were a massive disappointment at the end of last season going 2-10. Their biggest issue was at QB, obviously, where Joe Cox was a dreadful passer. Bernard Jackson started later in the year and he gave the offense a little bit of juice. Hawkins has been moving him around and it looks like Bernard will see some time at WR while the coach’s son, Cody Hawkins, will take the reigns for the Buffs this year. Last year’s defense was actually pretty solid led by LB Jordan Dizon. This side of the ball was 66th ranked in the nation, and you can’t really blame them considering the offensive performance. There’s no reason to believe why Colorado shouldn’t be better than 2006.
3. What about Baylor? Is this the year they finally get to that bowl game?
The Answer: Dream on.
Analysis: Baylor might be able to get better as an all-around football team, but the schedule is just too much for them to handle. Especially with the way the Bears finished last year once Shawn Bell went down. Michael Machen will be the starter, at the ripe ol’ age of 25. John David Weed will also get a shot but this offense also ranked dead last running the football. Joe Pawelek is a great LB, but the Baylor defense was terrible ranking 110th in the nation in total defense. Baylor’s staff will get an overhaul, but the Big 12 South is just too demanding for them to really make any waves.
4. How will Sam Keller fit in Bill Callahan’s west coast system?
Answer: Brilliantly.
Analysis: Let’s keep in mind, Keller was redshirted last year at Nebraska, so he has some familiarity with the offense. This, of course, is the first time he’ll actually be seeing action, but he has the potential to hit those dink-and-dunk sort of passes required to run a west coast offense. Expect no dropoff from Zac Taylor to Sam Keller.
5. Missouri is the popular pick, but what team could emerge as a dark horse in the Big 12 North?
Answer: Nobody, really.
Analysis: While this year’s version of the Big 12 North is better than it was a couple years ago, Nebraska and Missouri are the two main contenders, no question. Kansas State would be the closest thing to a dark horse, but Freeman still needs to develop and the rushing defense needs some improvement. Kansas had the nation’s worst pass defense and even though Kendrick Harper should greatly improve the unit coming from junior college, it’ll still be very poor and they lose John Cornish at RB. Iowa State and Colorado, while they are able to make some strides this year, are in rebuilding mode.
BTB All-Big 12 Team:
QB: Colt McCoy (Texas)
RB: Mike Goodson (Texas A&M)
RB: Jamaal Charles (Texas)
WR: Limas Sweed (Texas)
WR: Adarius Bowman (Oklahoma State)
TE: Martin Rucker (Missouri)
OT: Tony Hills (Texas)
OG: George Robinson (Oklahoma)
C: Adam Spieker (Missouri)
OG: Kirk Elder (Texas A&M)
OT: Carl Nicks (Nebraska)
DE: Ian Campbell (Kansas State)
DT: James McClinton (Kansas)
DT: Frank Okam (Texas)
DE: Chris Harrington (Texas A&M)
LB: Alvin Bowen (Iowa State)
LB: Joe Pawelek (Baylor)
LB: Jordan Dizon (Colorado)
CB: Aqib Talib (Kansas)
S: Nic Harris (Oklahoma)
S: Joe Garcia (Texas Tech)
CB: Reggie Smith (Oklahoma)
K: Alex Trlica (Texas Tech)
P: Matt Fodge (Oklahoma State)
5 Potential Statement Games (in no particular order):
1. Sept. 20, Texas A&M @ Miami
While the Oklahoma/Miami game might make more noise on the national scene, Texas A&M is everybody’s trendy pick to compete for the Big 12 South this year. In order to do that, a win against Miami is crucial for their confidence. The Aggies never really defeated anyone of note with the exception of Texas on the final week before Cal demolished A&M in the Holiday Bowl. A win against the Hurricanes would announce that the Aggies are for real and it’ll also mean a probable 5-0 start before the Oklahoma State game.
2. Sept. 1, Oklahoma State @ Georgia
The Cowboys need to win this game to get off on the right foot. Offenses are much sexier than defenses, making Okie State another popular dark horse Big 12 South selection. OSU will want this marquee win under their belts as this would also announce that they’re for real. Georgia will have a nasty defense and the Cowboy’s D will have a task on their hands trying to keep Georgia’s improved offense at bay.
3. Sept. 15, USC @ Nebraska
This game is also huge for the Cornhuskers. Callahan’s stint at Nebraska has never had a win that sent waves throughout the college football world (unless you want to count the 2005 Alamo Bowl). In 2004, they went 5-6. In 2005, they lost to Texas Tech and Oklahoma. In 2006, they lost to USC, Texas, Oklahoma, and Auburn in their bowl game. So as you can see, they haven’t pulled off many big upsets. They’ve got a great shot to do so getting the Trojans to come to Lincoln. This will be one of the better games this season.
4. Sept. 1, Kansas State @ Auburn
Kansas State had a tough time being consistent last year, mainly because of how erratic Josh Freeman can be. He’s got an opportunity to change his fortunes (6 TDs, 15 picks) against an Auburn team that should be somewhat down. Even so, a win over Auburn would be a landmark victory for head coach Ron Prince. In all honesty, the Wildcats were really nothing special in 2006, but they’ve got a shot to take out the Tigers.
5. Sept. 15, Florida State @ Colorado
Even though Colorado gets Arizona State on their schedule as well, this date with the Noles could be the liftoff game for Coach Hawkins. Who knows, they are good enough to surprise us. With a QB that can throw in Dan Hawkins’ offense, they should move the ball much better than they did last year while Florida State might still be rusty trying to adjust to the new offensive system. The Buffs should hang around and with a 2-10 finish last season, that will be good enough for them.
Take These to the Bank (at your own risk!):
1. Iowa State is not in great shape right now.
Gene Chizik wanted a challenge, and he certainly got one with Iowa State. Dan McCarney was pretty good with the Cyclones; people forget that for the two previous years, ISU went to bowl games. The program has enough potential with Bret Meyer at QB and Todd Blythe at WR, but the offensive line needs some rebuilding, the defensive line does as well, they need to find a RB, and they also need some help in the secondary. Hope is however that some JUCO kids that he brought in will help immediately and that will put Iowa State in a position to compete for a bowl.
2. Texas Tech will be fine, even with the departures.
Most of the losses for the Red Raiders came up front on the offensive line and at the WR position. Guess where they’re most talented and deep at? You guessed it, O-line and WR. Those departures aren’t really anything to lose any sleep over especially with L.A. Reed and Michael Crabtree catching passes. Graham Harrell has another year in this offense to build up those stats. The defense needs some fixing though. In the secondary, Joe Garcia will lead an average unit, but up front on the line, TTU is small and that could hurt them with some teams that pound the rock up the middle.
3. Oklahoma State and A&M have been over-hyped, it seems.
Let’s not lose sight of the fact that the Cowboys had a losing record in conference play and their defense is less-than-stellar. Okie State lost to Houston as well in the OOC schedule and the win over mediocre Alabama was nothing special. Texas A&M’s win/loss record was padded with defeating Army, The Citadel, UL Lafayette, and Louisiana Tech. They also get Nebraska, Missouri, Texas, and Oklahoma on the road. It’s not that A&M isn’t a good team, the schedule will do them in somewhat and as far as Okie State is concerned, they are a decent team, but when you look at the big picture, they aren’t really that fantastic.
4. Missouri will wind up being the most underrated team in the country.
Even though they have been picked to win their division, an average record in conference play will look worse than it really is. They get Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M drawn from the South while Nebraska will provide a tough battle. If they finish 5-3, it won’t be that bad. Chase Daniel will head one of the most feared passing attacks in the nation with dangerous TE weapons in Martin Rucker and Chase Coffman. If Tony Temple can come back healthy, the offense will explode. Missouri’s D retains five guys, led by NT Lorenzo Williams. The Tiger defense won’t be spectacular, but it’ll be good enough to get the job done.
5. And we can’t go through out a Big 12 preview without talking some Texas.
Obviously, Texas appears to be the most talented team in the Big 12. Colt McCoy is a legit Heisman contender considering he’s equipped with weapons such as Jamaal Charles (who should break out this season) and Limas Sweed (one of the best receivers in this class). The defense should improve but they have one big question and that’s in the secondary where they ranked 99th overall. Now, this year’s unit will have to move on without NFLers in Michael Griffin and Aaron Ross. This will hold them back from winning the Big 12.
Projected Big 12 Standings (including tiebreakers):
North
1. Nebraska (7-1 Big 12 Champions)
2. Missouri (5-3)
3. Kansas State (3-5)
4. Colorado (3-5)
5. Iowa State (2-6)
6. Kansas (2-6)
South
1. Texas (7-1)
2. Texas Tech (6-2)
3. Oklahoma (6-2)
4. Texas A&M (4-4)
5. Oklahoma State (3-5)
6. Baylor (0-8)
Eric also writes for the blog, Saturday Sound Offs.
