Every year there are players who start off the season with a bang, and fade into nothing toward the middle-to-end of the year. This is especially true with many players who have a breakout game in the first week of the season. In addition to these players, there are also players who were drafted high in your draft and are on the down-swing in terms of their fantasy value.
Both of these scenarios are things that you want to avoid. “Sell high” means to get rid of a player while his value as at its peak, before it drops again. This is the same theory that stockholders use on Wall Street, but it works just as well in the fantasy football market.
Tony Romo, DAL
The highest scoring quarterback in week one was Dallas’ Tony Romo. To the delight of the fantasy owners who had the guts to start him, Romo threw all over the Giants on his way to four passing touchdown – he also ran one in. Though Romo is a solid fantasy quarterback, he is not an elite fantasy quarterback – and his value might be near that right now in the eyes of some fantasy owners. If Romo is your backup quarterback, you can probably package him with a mid-tier running back to get a slight downgrade at QB and an upgrade at RB. You may also be able to trade him if he’s your starter, if you have a quality backup behind him. Keep in mind that Dallas is not going to play horrible secondaries like the Giants every week and Romo will likely not come close to this number again this season. His value is at an all-time high and it may be best to get what you can for him now, especially if he’s just going to sit on your bench for most of the year.
LaMont Jordan, OAK
The Raiders are not a good offense and they don’t get to play the Lions every week. There, that outta’ explain why LaMont Jordan is on this list. In addition to this being an obvious breakout game for a mid-tier running back, Jordan is a big injury risk. He had a nagging back injury that carried over from ’06 into this season and it appeared to be hindering him a bit in the pre-season. Since Jordan was likely the 3rd, 4th, or even 5th running back you selected, you might be able to use him as bait to dangle in front of a team in need of another running back. His 150+ yard, 1 touchdown performance in week one probably isn’t a sign of things to come.
Larry Johnson, KC
Following an impressive 2006 year where he finished as the 2nd overall scorer in almost every league, Kansas City’s Larry Johnson was expected to be in for another good year… That is, before his offensive line fell apart, his quarterback left the team, and his contract became a bigger issue than actually playing the game. Larry sat out the entire pre-season and has had limited time to practice since then. Though he did play in week one against the Texans, he did not appear to be in typical “Larry Johnson” shape. If he were to be receiving his normal share of carries, most fantasy owners would expect a monster game out of Larry in week one against the Texans… But he only ran the ball 10 times for 43 yards and 0 touchdowns. He did, however, catch a team-high 7 passes for an additional 44 yards. The problem with Larry Johnson isn’t that we don’t expect him to return to being himself – but rather that this offense is so bad that even though Johnson is an elite runner, he may have the opportunities to get into the end-zone that he has had in years past. Johnson is still considered one of the top fantasy players in the league, so you should be able to get a good offer in exchange for Johnson.
Marshawn Lynch, BUF
Though the Bills kept it close with Denver until the final second of the game, their offense really did not do a whole lot to indicate that they were much improved from where they were in 2006. J.P. Losman threw for just 94 yards, 0 touchdowns, and an interception; while Marshawn Lynch added 90 yards on the ground, including one touchdown. The main thing that people wanted to see in Lynch was that he would be the guy who got 90% or more of the carries – and he received that in week one. Marshawn is a decent running back, but the offense that surrounds him is downright bad, especially the quarterback. Defenses will begin keying in on Lynch and it is possible that he will mix in games with under 50 total yards and 0 touchdowns. He is a young, talented running back that is the clear starter on his team, so you should be able to get something decent in return for him.
Plaxico Burress, NYG
So, that’s how the Cowboys secondary looks without Terrence Newman… Even in defeat, Eli Manning and Plaxico Burress looked like Montana and Rice against the Cowboys in week one, and delighted fantasy owners who had them in their starting lineup. With 144 yards and 3 touchdowns, Plaxico Burress was easily the top fantasy wide receiver in week one and appeared to be a man among boys. But it was the injury to Eli Manning that has us very concerned about Plaxico’s fantasy outlook. Though Jared Lorenzen is a capable backup, and actually perhaps more accurate than Eli Manning, he does not have the strength in his arm that Eli possesses. Plaxico Burress makes his living in the 15-20 yard range, as well as the 40+ range – both of which are problem areas for Lorenzen. Even if Eli Manning returns in the upcoming weeks, he is going to be in pain and may not be able to make all the throws that Plaxico will need him to make. In addition, you obviously cannot expect a three-touchdown performance out of a wide receiver every week. Over his career, Plaxico has been a very hit-or-miss receiver who comes up with a huge game one week against a good defense, and the next week he puts a goose-egg on the board against a team that we would all expect him to destroy. Burress’ fantasy value is pretty much at an all-time peak right now and it would be wise to take advantage of that.
Jason Witten, DAL
The Cowboys tight end caught 6 passes for 116 yards and a touchdown in week one against a Giants defense that looked completely clueless as to how he kept going right up the middle and pulling in 20-yard receptions against them. Witten is a very good tight end, but he is not a particularly excellent fantasy tight end. In fact, he went the entire ’06 season without a 100-yard receiving game. Though it can be hard to trade tight ends, Jason Witten’s value is about as high as it’s going to get. If you can take a slight downgrade at tight end while upgrading at another position, it would probably be wise to do it now.
